Adventures in Independents Land

Tonight we called independent voters to get them to support Deval Patrick for Governor of Massachusetts.  We found that Independent Voters are a different breed than your registered Democrat.  Come see how our admittedly small poll might tell us something about the MA-Gov race.

   Deval Patrick is a true Netroots/Grassroots candidate running for governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.  He has run a people centered positive campaign, and recent polls show him with a double digit lead.  However, as Deval says the same people who said a year ago he could never win are now saying he will win, so do not trust the polls.  At the grassroots level we are still knocking on doors, doing standouts, and making phone calls.  At the final meeting of the entire field organization last weekend, we were instructed to stop calling registered Democrats since we know we will get 70-80% of their vote.  Instead, we were instructed to call independent voters ("unenrolled" as they are called in Massachusetts) and see who they are voting for.  We made 144 calls tonight, and talked to 64 people.  Some observations about the independent breed of voter.

1. On the whole they seem to be home less and/or do not answer their phones compared to Democrats.  We had a ridiculous number of no answers and left messages tonight.
2. They more frequently refuse to disclose who they are voting for than registered Dems.
3. Not suprisingly, a higher percentage of independents are undecided compared to registered Dems.
4. And unfortunately, but not suprisingly, a higher percentage of independents will be voting for Republican Kerry Healey for Governor than registered Dems.

Here are the results of our very unscientific poll:

Support for Deval Patrick amongst independent voters (including leaners): 58%
Support for Kerry Healey amongst independent voters (including leaners): 28%
Undecided independents: 16%

Interestingly, these numbers roughly agree with recent statewide polls showing Deval with ~55% of the total vote and Healey ~30% of the total vote.  On the whole, I think these numbers are good news for us.  We know the base is mobilized from the 70-80% of Democrats we know will vote for us.  My numbers show we also have a clear majority of the independents as well.  Put the two together, and I think that gives us enough votes to go over the top.  

Now, before you dismiss my poll as too small and too local know this: my local polling results for the primary closely matched the statewide results.  And, I know 1 newspaper  uses my town as a bellwether for the state, meaning that the vote in my town frequently tracks that of the vote statewide.

Its still not too late to volunteer or contribute: www.devalpatrick.com.  Keep your fingers crossed and VOTE on November 7th.